Crime In America: Study Reveals The 10 Most Unsafe Neighborhoods (2023)

While data shows that crime is actually down in the U.S. in recent years, many Americans believe that the country is becoming more violent than ever—and high-profile incidents like mobs rioting at the U.S. Capitol and the Department of Homeland Security issuing a threat bulletin to warn of ongoing potential for domestic violence only underscore those fears. So the timing of a new study from the risk assessment app Augurisk Now, revealing the country’s 10 most dangerous neighborhoods, couldn’t be better. (To read a recent report about the most dangerous towns in America, see “Study Ranks The 100 Safest Small Towns In America.”)

Augurisk Now—which launched last month—helps people track the likelihood of crime and national disasters, making it a useful tool for everyone from travelers to concerned citizens to potential homebuyers. The way it works: Whenever you enter a dangerous block in the U.S., the free app uses proprietary risk-scoring algorithms to alert of potential dangers, warning users that they have entered a predicted or observed high crime area. Similarly, the app can predict risks when it comes to floods, earthquakes, wildfires and storms.

“Many years ago, while I was searching for a new property that would be safe from floods or earthquakes, I was surprised no service provided such essential information in an intuitive form,” says founder Mohamed Mezian. “That’s where the idea for Augurisk emerged—our main mission is to help people and businesses better prepare for the future.”

In order to zero in on the 10 most dangerous neighborhoods in the United States, Augurisk analyzed its data and issued a report on the riskiest places by looking at Census block groups, a statistical division of tracts that usually contains 600 to 3,000 residents. Augurisk then measured each Census block group by predicting violent crime occurrences and violent crime rate (per 100,000 residents).“The data underlying this crime analysis are taken from the predictions of our proprietary machine learning crime prediction algorithm,” says Augurisk’s lead scientist Simon de Bonviller. “Other contextual factors presented in this article were adapted from the American Community Survey 2014-2018 5-Year estimates.”

Surprisingly, some of the cities in the U.S. that have recently been named most-dangerous places—like Detroit and Memphis—didn't make this Augurisk list. According to de Bonviller, one explanation for this relates to the resolution considered. “We focus on block groups— i.e. neighborhoods—while such rankings consider crime statistics in the entire city (or law enforcement agency),” he says. “However, one risky neighborhood doesn’t necessarily make a whole city dangerous, and vice versa.”

Another explanation: Augurisk trained a machine learning algorithm to predict crime occurrences based on 188 predictors (including socioeconomic, demographic, climatic and law enforcement variables, among others). “This algorithm was trained using the exact location and type of crimes committed in 11 U.S. cities between 2014 and 2018, including Detroit,” says de Bonviller. “The result was used to generate this ranking. Thus, we use predictions of the crime expected by our algorithm given 188 predictors related to a place, not past crime—as in the mentioned rankings—which can explain some differences.

Nevertheless, de Bonviller says that the he and team at Augurisk were surprised by the results—especially by the high number of dangerous neighborhoods in California. “Initially, when we were exclusively focusing on crime rate, the most dangerous places in the U.S. were found to be parks, airports and other busy places with low to no population. If the population is low, then crime risk can be overestimated when using such an indicator. Subsequently, we therefore used the number of crimes committed as an additional criterion. Moreover, we were surprised to notice the high occurrence of block groups located on the West Coast in the ranking, including in Los Angeles and San Francisco.”

Read on for more details about the most dangerous neighborhoods in America. For people who are moving from one city to another, Augurisk’s public county risk assessmentcan provide free insights into their new county, while people acquiring a new property can use the Augurisk websiteto generate a free natural disaster and societal risk report, to make sure the property is not at risk.

1. Los Angeles: Block group delimited by E. 5th St., S. Los Angeles St., Boyd St., and S. San Pedro St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 239

Predicted violent crime rate: 347 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “This block group in downtown Los Angeles has been predicted to be the most dangerous in the U.S.,” says de Bonviller. “In these few blocks, 55% of the households surveyed by the 5-Year American Community Survey (ACS) were living with less than $10,000 a year between 2014 and 2018, earning less than 99.8% of all U.S. block groups. The median household income is around $9,175 per year. 83% of the residents were male (a factor often associated with higher crime rates), and about 80% of the population aged 16+ were not in the labor force—which is higher than 99% of U.S. block groups.”

2. Los Angeles: Block group delimited by Santa Monica Fwy., Maple Ave., E. 9th / S. Los Angeles St., E. 7th St., Gladys Ave., E. Olympic Blvd., and S. Alameda St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 407

Predicted violent crime rate: 293 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “The second block group with the highest violent crime risk in the ranking is also located downtown Los Angeles, on the edge of Santa Monica Fwy.,” says de Bonviller. “Its population is younger than 80% of U.S. The median male age is 30.6 years and the median female age 32.5 years, with a much higher proportion of males (64%). This is associated with unemployment issues, as the unemployment rate was higher than 87% of the U.S. between 2014 and 2018.”

3. Los Angeles: Block group delimited by E. 7th St., S. San Pedro St., E. 5th St. / S. Central Ave. / E. 4th, and S. Alameda St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 456

Predicted violent crime rate: 291 crimes per 1000 residents

The details: “Among the residents surveyed by the American Community Survey between 2014 and 2018, 60% of the households residing in this block group lived with less than $10,000 a year, a proportion higher than 99.9% of U.S. block groups. This issue was further illustrated by a $7,188 median household income over the last 12 months before the survey. In this sense, this block group figured among the 65 poorest neighborhoods in the United States,” says de Bonviller. “Residents were identified as mostly male (69%), with a median age higher than average (53.2 years median male age, 52.9 years median female age).”

4. San Francisco: Block group delimited by Division St. / 9th / Brennan / 10th / Bryant / 11th St., Harrison St., 6th St., and Townsend St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 296

Predicted violent crime rate: 298 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “This block group crossed by Highway 80, located downtown San Francisco, comes fourth in our ranking,” says de Bonviller. “In spite of a high median household income of $158,958 per year —which is more than 97% of U.S. block groups—it is considered as a high risk because of high violent crime count and violent crime rate. Some associated factors include a high percentage of males in the area (61%), and a relatively low median age (lower than 77% of the U.S. block groups), and a high number of households earning less than $10,000 a year in the neighboring block groups (more than in 98.4% of the U.S.). This block group is also characterized by a high predicted property crime rate.”

5. Kansas City, Missouri: Block group delimited by E. 8th St., Prospect Ave., E. 12th St., and Cleveland Ave.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 182

Predicted violent crime rate: 304 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “31% of the households surveyed in this block group in Kansas City lived with less than $10,000 a year, a proportion higher than 98% of U.S. block groups,” says de Bonviller. “With a $20,391 median household income, residents tend to earn less than 97% of the block groups nationally.Finally, a high proportion (about 56%) of the surveyed residents were not in the labor force (top 7% nationally). Note that this block group includes a stadium and a park. In such places which tend to attract many visitors while hosting only a few residents, using the crime rate as an indicator (calculated based on the population residing in a block group) can lead to crime overestimation. This is one of the reasons why our ranking was made using two indicators: the crime rate, and the absolute number of crimes expected.”

6. Los Angeles: Block group delimited by E. 7th St., S. Los Angeles St., E. 5th St., and San Julian St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 407

Predicted violent crime rate: 226 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “This block group in Los Angeles has one of the lowest median household income nationally: 47% of households lived between $10,000 a year at the time of the ACS Survey, with a $10,397/year median household income (which is lower than 99.9% of block groups in the U.S.),” says de Bonviller. “These issues were associated with a high unemployment rate,(highest 8% nationally), and a high proportion of males (86% male, highest 1% nationally). Finally, an important proportion of the residents were out of the labor force (68% out of the labor force, highest 2% nationally), probably in relation with a high median age of 56.4 years.”

7. San Francisco: Block group delimited by Market St, Powell St, Bush St, and 1st St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 227

Predicted violent crime rate: 247 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “This block group including Union Square in San Francisco, CA comes seventh in our ranking, in spite of a relatively high median household income ($66,667, a bit higher than the national average in the ACS Survey),” says de Bonviller. “Violent crime in this area is associated with a high property crime prediction, as the area figures among the 10 block groups with the most property crimes predicted in the United States.”

8. San Francisco: Block group delimited by Turk St., Taylor St., Ellis St., Powell St., and Market St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 242

Predicted violent crime rate: 203 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “Households surveyed in the 2014-2018 ACS in this block group had a $20,583 annual median household income, among the lowest 3% in the U.S.,” says de Bonviller. “60% of the 16+ population was not in the labor force (highest 4% in the U.S.). 66% of the surveyed population was male (highest 2%), with a median age of 55.1 years (highest 6%).”

9. Portland, Oregon: Block group delimited by Steel Bridge, the Willamette River, Fremont Bridge, N. Russel St., N. Williams Ave. / NE Thompson St., the NE Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. / NE Hancock St. / NE 1st Ave. / NE Weidler St., Pacific Highway, and the BNSF Railroad.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 181

Predicted violent crime rate: 210 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “28% of the households on this block group of Portland, OR, lived with less than $10,000 a year (highest 3% nationally) during the survey,” says de Bonviller. “Besides, 65% of residents had moved in less than four years ago (top 16%). Residents in this block also tend to struggle with unemployment, as the unemployment rate was higher than in 96% of U.S. block groups nationally.”

10. Kansas City, Kansas: Block group delimited by Ann Ave, N. 10th St., Washington Blvd., N. 3rd St. / Minnesota Ave. / N. 4th St.

Predicted violent crimes per year: 187

Predicted violent crime rate: 204 crimes per 1,000 residents

The details: “48% of households in this block group in Kansas City, Kansas lived with less than $10,000 a year during the American Community Survey 2014-2018, which is more than 99.7% of block groups nationally,” says de Bonviller. “The median household income was $11,000 a year (in the lowest 0.2% nationally). Residents also faced an unemployment rate higher than 92% of U.S. block groups, while about 66% of residents were out of the labor force. Residents were older than average within the block groups—50.9 median age (male), 49.5 median age (women)—but neighboring block groups were much younger than average (about 30.7 years).”

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